海灣石油基建的韌性有其極限

Amena’s view

The drums of war are beating again, and the oil-exporting states are bracing “for the worst,” as the UAE’s presidential advisor Anwar Gargash recently put it. Eight months into the US-Iran war, one lesson is clear: There is no amount of operational resilience that can shield energy infrastructure from an unresolved political conflict. Renewed strikes will put more of the region’s oil supply at risk.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have demonstrated exceptional levels of resilience, activating contingency plans, carrying out repair works in record time, and keeping customers supplied. Their bypass pipelines have proven the value of planning for the shift from the “just in time” model to the “just in case” approach.

The UAE’s 1.8 million-barrel-per-day (bpd) pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman was once questioned as an investment. Its cost was recovered after just one month of conflict, according to people familiar with the matter. A second link with similar capacity is expected to be completed by July 2027. Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its larger East-West Pipeline and may bring in countries like Iraq and Kuwait that don’t have shipping outlets outside the Gulf.

Within the industry, there’s a growing consensus that the pre-war oil flows will not return. More investment will be earmarked for contingencies, reflecting in part the view that reaching a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war is unlikely anytime soon.

So far, the global energy system has performed better than expected. Gulf exporters kept their oil flowing despite the risks faced in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, inventories were released, and some demand was curtailed, all of which combined to limit the oil price spike. But this resilience should not be mistaken for future security of supply, especially as this potential escalation comes at a time when global inventory levels have been drained by around 1 billion barrels. Brent is trading above $110 a barrel, of which perhaps $40 could be attributed to geopolitical risk.

While much of the focus is on guessing what US President Donald Trump is planning, the reality for the oil industry is that higher prices may have eroded around 3 million bpd of demand, according to energy industry executives. This assumption is even more pessimistic than the IEA’s forecast of demand declining by around 2.6 million bpd this year. Another rise in prices, or oil prices sustained at this level, will only lead to even more demand destruction.

This week, ahead of Abu Dhabi’s flagship energy conference ADIPEC, senior executives and CEOs from the energy industry gathered to discuss the challenges facing the industry under the Chatham House Rule. There was frustration about the lack of policy support, especially from European governments, for investment in the upstream sector and the construction of refineries. Over the past two decades, around 25% of Europe’s refineries were shut down, mainly as a result of policies related to the energy transition. Today, energy executives from European oil majors are pressured to address rising prices of oil products without having the facilities needed to deliver the energy to consumers.

If there’s one silver lining from this crisis, it’s prioritizing investments in new supply and abandoning the dichotomy between the concepts of “old energy” and “new energy.” At the opening of ADIPEC on Monday, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was asked what the biggest challenge facing his industry is. He replied with one word: “energy.”

Another round of war will make that energy costlier, and less abundant.

Notable

• The UAE’s race toward its “Zero Hormuz” strategy runs through Fujairah, where investments can be seen in all directions intended to move the fossil fuels and products that would otherwise be trapped in the Gulf, Semafor reported.