SEMI 預測全球 DRAM 產能到 2030 年增長 41%

Global dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) production capacity is expected to increase 41% by 2030 compared with last year, driven by growth in advanced products manufactured at process nodes of 15 nanometers (nm) and below, according to SEMI.

​NAND flash production capacity is also projected to expand 21% over the same period as output of products with more than 400 layers increases.

​The global semiconductor industry association SEMI said at its SEMI Market Symposium held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco on Oct. 12 that global DRAM capacity, measured in 8-inch wafer equivalents, will rise to 2.94 million wafers per month in 2030 from 2.08 million last year. The increase of 860,000 wafers per month over five years represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%.

​Capacity growth will be concentrated in advanced DRAM manufactured at process nodes of 15nm and below. Monthly capacity for these products is projected to rise by 1 million wafers, from 1.45 million last year to 2.45 million in 2030, representing a CAGR of 11.1%. Advanced DRAM will account for about 83% of total DRAM capacity by 2030. By contrast, capacity for legacy DRAM manufactured at 16nm and above is expected to decline by 142,000 wafers per month, from 634,000 to 492,000.

​“High-bandwidth memory (HBM) production requires more advanced wafers and backend processing resources than conventional DRAM, while legacy DRAM capacity is being reduced or converted to other uses,” said Clark Tseng, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at SEMI. “As a result, shortages could affect both advanced and legacy DRAM even as overall capacity expands.”

​Actual capacity growth could exceed SEMI’s forecast, however, given expansion plans announced by major memory makers.

​NAND flash capacity is projected to increase to 2.02 million wafers per month in 2030 from 1.67 million last year, adding 350,000 wafers per month over five years. That represents a CAGR of about 4%.

​The transition to newer product generations is also accelerating. Production is shifting from NAND products with 239 to 400 layers toward devices with more than 400 layers. Such products, which accounted for virtually no production last year, are expected to represent about 82% of total NAND capacity by 2030. SEMI also expects 600-layer products to emerge.

​The growing share of advanced products could boost demand for materials and equipment. As NAND layer counts rise, etching and deposition processes become more complex, while stress control and yield improvement become more challenging. HBM manufacturing is also becoming more difficult as stacking architectures and production processes evolve with each generation. As a result, demand for equipment and materials could grow faster than production capacity.

​“Growth in semiconductor manufacturing is moving beyond simply expanding output toward increasing technological intensity,” Tseng said. “As traditional markets such as personal computers and smartphones weaken, artificial intelligence is changing the growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry.”