Building DisconfirmAI：優先尋找反證的 AI 投資研究工作空間
Building DisconfirmAI: An AI investment research workspace that looks for counter-evidence first
DisconfirmAI 是一個 AI 投資研究工作空間，採用先尋找反證的原則，協助用戶研究股票及財務報告。研究結果分為 Verified、Inferred 和 Doubtful，不提供買賣建議或目標價格；Radar 按排程掃描用戶設定的持倉修訂或退出條件，無重大變化時會保持安靜並記錄掃描結果。
When you use a general-purpose LLM to analyze a stock or read an earnings report, it tends to agree with whatever premise you put in the prompt. If you ask why a company looks undervalued, it will assemble a convincing bull case. In financial research, that habit is risky.
I built DisconfirmAI around a simple rule from Karl Popper and value investing: before building conviction in a thesis, look for the specific evidence that would prove it wrong.
Here is how the workspace is structured:
1. Primary-Source Daily Reading
The Daily Reading feed curates AI industry and market developments from primary sources, keeping original links and publication dates. Editorial annotations use three fixed labels:
- [Background] for factual context
- [Doubt] when a claim relies only on vendor self-reporting without independent benchmarks
- [Editor's Note] for editorial commentary
2. SEC Filing & 13F Research Separated by Evidence Level
In the Research workflow, questions about earnings releases, multi-year financials, and SEC 13F institutional holdings (calculated strictly by share-count changes rather than market-value fluctuations) are split into three sections: Verified, Inferred, and Doubtful. It does not output buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
3. Investment Framework & Quiet Scheduled Radar
In Investment Framework, you write down your circle of competence, entry rules, and the exact conditions that would force you to revise or exit a position. Radar scans those conditions on a schedule. When nothing material changes, it stays quiet and logs scanned-and-empty in the audit trail.
4. Open AI Industry Databases & 23 Free Valuation Tools
Everything below is open in the browser without registration:
- AI 100 Ranking and AI Industry Map covering 328 public and private AI companies with valuation sources.
- AI Capital Database tracking 291 AI-native companies with $100M+ in funding and 1,205 investment firms.
- 23 Native Investing Tools including Value Trap Review, Business Quality Check, Damodaran DCF, Buffett Intrinsic Value, Abnormal Selling Pressure Check, and a 38-metric financial analysis handbook.
If you analyze tech or AI companies or build financial research workflows, I would love your feedback on the tools and the falsification approach: https://disconfirmai.com/en
來源：DEV Community · dev.to