準確率誤導了我：ML Zoomcamp Module 4 的精確率、召回率、ROC AUC 與交叉驗證

In Module 3 I trained a lead-scoring classifier and reported 0.645 accuracy. It sounded fine. Module 4 of ML Zoomcamp exists to
destroy exactly that feeling — accuracy hides everything interesting when classes are imbalanced. Here is what I actually learned,
with the numbers from my homework notebook.

1. AUC as a feature-importance flashlight
   Before training anything, I scored every numerical column by using it raw as the prediction and computing ROC AUC against the
   target (negating it when AUC < 0.5, which just means negative correlation):
   annual_income: 0.608
   number_of_courses_viewed: 0.723
   interaction_count: 0.765
   lead_score: 0.788 ← winner
   Two lessons. First, lead_score alone already separates the classes decently — good to know before blaming the model. Second,
   the trap: if you loop over all numeric columns naively you also score converted against itself and get a perfect 1.000. I had that bug.
   Exclude the target.

2. The model: AUC 0.732, and why accuracy is not the story
   One-hot encoding with DictVectorizer (fit on train only), logistic regression with solver="liblinear", C=1.0, probabilities
   from predict_proba. Validation AUC: 0.732.
   AUC'sasts interpretation is my favourite thing in the module: it is the probability that a random positive outranks a random negative.
   My model ranks a random converter above a random non-converter 73% of the time. One number, no threshold chosen, immune to
   class balance. Accuracy can’t say any of that.

3. The threshold tradeoff is real (plot it!)
   Sweeping thresholds 0.00–1.00 in 0.01 steps: precision climbs, recall falls, they cross at 0.63 (P≈0.733, R≈0.725). F1 peaks earlier, at
   0.41 (F1≈0.758). The default 0.5 threshold is optimal for nothing — it is just the default. If missing a converter costs you more than a
   wasted email, you live left of 0.5; if spam costs more, right of it. The plot decides, not the default.

4. Cross-validation: std is the point, and the solver is the trap
   5-fold CV (KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=1)), fresh vectorizer per fold, AUC per fold: 0.731, 0.730,
   0.736, 0.741, 0.721. Mean ≈ 0.732, std 0.007. The std is the deliverable — it says how much I’d trust this number on new data.
   And here is the bug that would have failed the homework: the spec says solver="liblinear". Writing just
   LogisticRegression(max_iter=1000) silently uses lbfgs, which throws ConvergenceWarning on this data and lands on std
   0.013 — a different multiple-choice option. Same data, same seed, wrong solver, wrong answer. Read the spec, copy the constructor
   exactly.

5. Tuning C: regularization you can see
   Same 5-fold loop over C in [1e-06, 0.001, 1]:C=1e-06 → 0.617 ± 0.019 (regularization crushes the weights: underfit)
   C=0.001 → 0.749 ± 0.010 ← best
   C=1 → 0.732 ± 0.007

Tiny C is not “safer”, it is a model that barely learns. The sweep makes the bias-variance tradeoff visible instead of theoretical.
Takeaway: 0.65 accuracy told me my Module 3 model “works”. Module 4 told me what it actually does: ranks decently (0.732), forces
a precision/recall choice nobody made at 0.5, is stable across folds (±0.007), and tunes to C=0.001. I trust the second description.
Don’t report accuracy alone again.
Repo: https://github.com/marcos-Nieves-24/machine-learning-zoomcamp/blob/main/homework-4/homework-4.ipynb