AI 是否令科技業以外企業減少人手？4,335 場 S&P 500 業績電話會議分析
Is AI costing jobs outside tech? I read 4,335 S&P 500 earnings calls
Daniel Oliveira 分析 4,335 場 S&P 500 非科技企業業績電話會議，發現 41 場有高管把 AI 與人手變化直接相連，涉及 26 間公司。會議涵蓋 2024 年 1 月至 2026 年 10 月 23 日；41 場中，22 場談到業務增長而不增加人手，14 場提及裁減職位或減少人手。較寬泛口徑共計 88 場；這項統計記錄的是高管在電話會議上的説法，而非薪酬名冊數據。
I read 4,335 earnings calls from the S&P 500 companies outside the technology sector, held from January 2024 to 23 October 2026, looking for one thing: an executive saying AI was changing the company's headcount.
It happened on 41 calls, by 26 companies. That is about one call in a hundred.
How I counted
- I searched every sentence that mentions AI for a link to jobs, headcount or hiring, then read each candidate by hand.
- A call counts when an executive said AI is reducing the company's headcount, or will, or that it lets the company keep headcount flat or grow it more slowly than the business.
- A broader count adds calls where AI is named next to job cuts, a hiring slowdown or a flatter structure without being given as the cause.
- I also counted denials, where an executive said the company is not using AI to cut jobs, and analyst questions about AI and headcount.
A keyword filter would not get close. Executives mentioned AI on 61.2% of these calls in July to September 2026, and on most of them AI is a product or productivity story with no word about staff.
Rare, but rising
| Year | Non-tech calls | AI tied to headcount | Share | Broader count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1,576 | 8 | 0.51% | 12 | 0.76% |
| 2025 | 1,526 | 16 | 1.05% | 31 | 2.03% |
| 2026, to 23 October | 1,233 | 17 | 1.38% | 45 | 3.65% |
| All | 4,335 | 41 | 0.95% | 88 | 2.03% |
The jump came in the second half of 2025, when the share tripled.
Mostly hiring less, not layoffs
Of the 41 calls, 22 were about growing without adding people and 5 about not replacing people who leave. Only 14 described cut roles or lower headcount.
Banks describe the attrition version most plainly. A large bank loses thousands of people a year, so hiring fewer of them shrinks the workforce without a layoff. Bank of America's chief executive called it "let attrition be your friend" in April 2026.
The cuts that do get named are often small and specific. United Airlines' chief financial officer said in October 2025 that "our management headcount is 4% lower than last year", with another 4% planned for 2026.
Banks and a freight broker
Financial services companies made 20 of the 41 claims, on 2.58% of their calls. Industrials made 15, and eight of those came from one company, C.H. Robinson, which tied AI to headcount on 8 of its 11 calls and reported average headcount down 12.3% from a year earlier in Q1 2026.
Five sectors made no such claim at all: real estate, utilities, consumer defensive, basic materials and energy.
The denials are growing too
Executives said they were not using AI to cut jobs on no call in 2024, 7 in 2025 and 13 in 2026, against 17 claims this year. One consulting chief at Marsh McLennan said there are "a lot of shenanigans going on" in companies crediting AI for headcount changes.
Analysts are asking more often: 1 call in 2024, 6 in 2025 and 18 in 2026.
What this can't tell you
- It counts what executives say on calls, not payroll data. A company can cut jobs without naming AI, and name AI for cuts that have other causes.
- 2026 is a partial year, through 23 October, with the October reporting season still under way.
The full study has the sector table, the companies that named cuts and every quote with its source: Executives Outside Tech: AI Means Hiring Less, Not Layoffs.
Data: S&P 500 earnings call transcripts, processed by Equibles.
來源：DEV Community · dev.to