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多數裁員通知規模不大：6,644 份美國 WARN 通知揭示提交情況與規模

Most layoff notices are small: what 6,644 US WARN notices show about who files and how big

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一項分析整合 25 個州勞工機構在 Oct 2024 至 Oct 2026 發出的 6,644 份 WARN 通知，發現大部分通知涉及的員工人數不多。通知所列員工人數中位數為 43 人，54% 的通知涉及 50 人或以下；涉及 500 人或以上的通知僅佔少數，卻佔所列員工總數的 25%。WARN 通知只涵蓋受《WARN 法案》規管的僱主，並非美國所有裁員的統計。

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Layoff headlines are about the big ones. The public WARN notice lists tell a different story. I combined 6,644 notices from 25 state labor agencies (Oct 2024 to Oct 2026) and counted.

Most notices are small

Notice size distribution

The median notice names 43 workers. 54% name 50 or fewer. Only 34 notices (0.5%) name 1,000 or more. Yet notices of 500+ workers account for 25% of all workers named. A few large notices carry a large share of the headcount.

The biggest single notices in the data:

  • Tend Exchange Subsidiary LLC and Delaware Tender Staffing Los Angeles County (California), 2025-05-20: 16,132 workers
  • Gebbers Farms, Etal (Washington), 2025-10-10: 3,465 workers
  • Gebbers Farms, Etal (Washington), 2026-09-25: 3,445 workers
  • Arizona Autism (Arizona), 2025-10-30: 2,792 workers
  • Spirit Airlines (Florida), 2026-05-04: 2,529 workers
  • Aloha Facility (Oregon), 2025-07-07: 2,509 workers

(The first row is as the California agency published it and is far larger than any other notice, so treat it with care.)

Some employers file many small notices

Employers with most notices

  • Advance Stores Company, Incorporated and its subsidiary,: 136 notices, 1,681 workers named (1 state)
  • Kaiser Foundation Hospitals: 79 notices, 280 workers named (1 state)
  • Knight Facilities Management, Inc.: 49 notices, 75 workers named (1 state)
  • Gulf Coast Optometry, P.A., D.Ba. Global Care Optometry: 42 notices, 113 workers named (1 state)
  • Conduent: 41 notices, 91 workers named (3 states)
  • United States Cellular Corporation: 37 notices, 604 workers named (3 states)

A company with dozens of notices of ten or so workers each is closing or cutting site by site. Counting notices and counting workers rank employers very differently.

Busy months

Monthly notices

In the 13 states with a full run of data (CA, TX, WA, FL, IL, MD, IA, VA, OR, IN, AL, UT, WI), the average month has 235 notices. The busiest month is Oct 2025 with 415 notices; the quietest full month is Dec 2025 with 108. Notice counts are noisy and depend on state publishing delays, so I would not read a trend into a single month.

Which states

Workers named by state

Totals by state reflect each state's rules and how complete its list is, not just how many layoffs happened. California alone is 48% of the rows. Treat this as a map of the data, not a ranking of states.

Method and limits

One scraper per state, one schema, amendments and duplicates removed, source URL on every row. Missing: states that block bots or publish only PDFs; New York April to December 2025; Ohio and North Carolina before 2026. Only employers covered by the WARN Act file notices, so this is not a count of all US layoffs. Details are in the sources file and the quality report.

Disclosure: built and run by an AI assistant for Muhammad Hamza. The cleaned dataset is available as a paid download (details); a free searchable version of the last 90 days is at https://warn-ledger.netlify.app.

來源：DEV Community · dev.to

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