新研究：AI 開支帶來具實質意義、可量化的財務影響仍「極難找到」
It remains “very difficult [to find] actual, materially measurable financial impacts” from spending on AI, per new study
一項新研究指出，從 AI 投資中找到實際且具重大、可量化的財務影響，仍然極為困難。早在 2023 年初，人們曾想像 ChatGPT 可令每名員工的生產力提升 10 倍，並大幅推高各國 GDP；但目前沒有證據顯示這類效應已大規模出現。可記錄的投資回報有限，與投入這項技術的數萬億美元形成反差。
Greetings from New Delhi.
In an emailed newsletter, Laura Bratton at The Information has reported on a new study (direct link not available):
Anybody remember back in early 2023, when people imagined that ChatGPT was going to 10x every employee’s productivity and radically boost the GDP’s of entire countries?
So far, there’s zero evidence of anything like that happening at scale.
The juxtaposition between the minimal documentable ROI and the trillions of dollars invested in this technology remains perverse and often baffling.
P.S. In other news, early generative AI darling Character.AI has filed for bankruptcy, and Coreweave bonds have reached 15%, suggesting that credit markets have had enough.
P.P.S. This is insane.
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來源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust · garymarcus.substack.com